Liveable Laoag and some emerging issues

(Conclusion)

The sequence of changes, fluctuations, variability and instability of the Laoag river basin can be graphically, historically, socially, virtually and statistically analyzed using available historical accounts, empirical data, journals and news records.  In fact, the Ilocos Times has a significant number of news reports detailing the impact of an overflowing river to nearby communities. It headlined the fury and the levels of flooding and damages brought by typhoons Gloring, Maring, Ondoy, Pepeng and Isang to name a few.  I was able to dig up quite a baggy sum of texts on its history, a few photos, maps, journals and the latest reports that assessed current status and scenarios of the Laoag River.

If we were to apply or integrate big data technologies and scenario art to analyze the past and future of Padsan, we could re-create the changes that occurred in the past and better anticipate the implicit and explicit impacts of a traumatized Padsan to Laoag at the social, economic, environment, cultural and political levels in the immediate future that is five to seven years from now or if we want to look what Laoag would be like thirty to fifteen years into the future with Padsan river as an internal or external influencer that is also possible.

We might need, in order to move forward, consider the fact that the history and future of the city and the Padsan River are closely intertwined. The river defined the current spread of the city and influences the level of Laoag’s climate exposure to borrow the observation of the recent World Wildlife Fund report. Padsan watercourse and its delta in particular those areas located in the lower portions of the north of the river, south banks as well as the Mangato creek have been exposed to seasonal flooding due to aggravating increases in river depth and breadth. These areas are, if we were to conservatively anticipate the impact of wet season, exposed to future flooding. But if we were to expect the worse and the weird to happen, future river flooding could create a wider and deeper flood plains that could swamp agricultural lands and the city proper.

Today, vast quantities of eroded sediments choke the Laoag river system. The traumatized river could no longer flush the trapped sediments to the sea. As the sediments aggregates at the rear of the deltaic plug or behind the man-made Monroe Island, riverbed elevation or shifts are expected to continue. And if the riverbed progressively elevates over time or shall I say if it elevates the riverbed by over two to three meters relative to the height of the Gilbert Bridge and the river upstream, the risk of flooding will be higher for the city of Laoag. The magnitude and frequency of flood hazards and other consequences to riverside communities and municipalities may also increase.  

A report in 1997 estimated that the accumulation of sediment deposit in the Laoag river basin was more than four million cubic meters annually. The sediment deposit now might have exceeded the allowable limit or carrying capacity of the river. It could be that the annual deposit might have doubled due to further soil erosion caused by a deepening deforestation practices, poor government intervention and lack of a long-term environment management and reforestation investments and programs.

Get the Bigger Picture: The City and the River Together Again!  

When I went to visit Perth City, Australia (one of the ten most liveable cities in the world) for a foresight conference on the futures of Asia and the Pacific in 2012, I got exposed to Perth’s city governments’ foresight approach and their river revitalization program. The Lord Mayor of Perth Lisa Scaffidi, keynoting the event, emphasized the importance of having a bigger picture and making decisions with long-term perspective as opposed to short-term populism.

Scaffidi combined foresight, innovation and shared solutions as essential to the transformation and liveability of cities in the years to come. Her governance approach that integrates foresight and innovation was featured in the World Cities Summit Mayors Forum in 2013. 

As to the Perty City Elizabeth Quay river project, the city embraced the river as one of Perth’s best natural assets. As such it turned the river into an opportunity for Australians “to work, dine, relax and entertain by the water.” The river revitalization project expects to generate thousands of jobs during construction and be a future workplace for more than 10,000 people. They expect to generate more visitors each year, to live and celebrate the glory of the Swan River and the city of Perth.

So, let us begin brainswarming the future of Padsan and generate shared solutions—the river as a product? Or the river as a heritage or both? For the people, the born and unborn future generations of Laoag.

engagedforesight.com